Most Want Musharraf to Quit, Poll Shows

New York Times

By DAVID ROHDE and CARLOTTA GALL

The first comprehensive public opinion poll conducted in Pakistan since President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency last month has found that 67 percent of Pakistanis want him to resign immediately and that 70 percent say his government does not deserve re-election.

The poll suggests that Mr. Musharraf will have to engage in substantial vote rigging to have the government of his choice win national elections on Jan. 8.

The survey also calls into question the view in the United States of Mr. Musharraf as a leader who can effectively rule Pakistan and deliver in the campaign against terrorism. And it suggests that civil unrest could erupt if Mr. Musharraf were to win the election.

The poll was conducted by the International Republican Institute, a nonprofit group based in Washington that is affiliated with the Republican Party and promotes democracy abroad. The results were provided to The New York Times before their release on Thursday.

Pakistan’s two main opposition leaders, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, each a former prime minister, are already accusing Mr. Musharraf of fixing the vote in advance and vowing protests if he prevails.

“If elections are rigged, we are going to need to be in a position like the people of Ukraine were, to protest those elections,” Ms. Bhutto said at a news conference last week. “A plan is under way to rig the elections, and to stop progress towards democracy.”

On Nov. 3, Mr. Musharraf declared a state of emergency, abrogated Pakistan’s Constitution, fired the Supreme Court, blacked out the independent news channels and arrested more than 5,000 of his opponents. Since then, most prisoners have been released and Mr. Musharraf has resigned from his post as army chief, but his actions have “polarized” Pakistani society, according to the poll.

Two-thirds of those surveyed “expressed anger at the current state of affairs, desired change and were anti-Musharraf,” the institute said. And one third “remained supportive of President Musharraf and were positive about the condition of the country.”

An American-backed proposal that Mr. Musharraf form a government with Ms. Bhutto also appears to be deeply unpopular. Sixty percent of Pakistanis polled opposed such a deal, which American officials had hoped would bolster support for Mr. Musharraf.

Instead, 58 percent said they would support a “Grand Opposition Alliance” among Ms. Bhutto, Mr. Sharif and other parties against Mr. Musharraf, a former general who seized power in a 1999 coup. Fifty-six percent said the army, which has intermittently ruled Pakistan since it won independence from Britain 60 years ago, should have no role in civilian government.

If Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif do not form an alliance, the country appears to be headed toward a hung Parliament, according to the poll. Asked which party they would support in elections, 30 percent of those polled said they would support Ms. Bhutto’s party, 25 percent named Mr. Sharif’s and 23 percent favored Mr. Musharraf’s.

The poll was based on the responses of 3,520 randomly selected men and women from across Pakistan, according to the institute. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.69 percentage points.

“If they did unite, they would put themselves in a much stronger position,” said Robert Varsalone, the institute’s country director, referring to Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif.

But the two are bitter personal rivals and, according to Pakistani political analysts, unlikely to be able to form a government together. They predicted continued political instability if no party wins the vote decisively, with Mr. Musharraf, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif all vying to cobble together governing coalitions with smaller parties.

The poll also identified several worrying trends for Mr. Musharraf’s party. Seventy percent of Pakistanis said they felt the country was headed in the wrong direction and 51 percent said their personal economic situation had worsened. And Mr. Sharif, who returned to Pakistan from exile two weeks ago, appears to be drawing center-right voters away from Mr. Musharraf, a key source of his support.

Pakistani and Western observers warn that clear signs already exist that Mr. Musharraf and his supporters are manipulating the election. They fear a repeat of nationwide elections won by Mr. Musharraf’s party in 2002.

“It was Pakistan’s most rigged election,” said Ijaz Gilani, chairman of Gallup Pakistan, an Islamabad-based polling and research firm. “Never in our history have we had so much pre-poll and post-poll rigging.”

The irregularities were numerous, according to the opposition and observers, including education requirements that knocked opposition candidates off the ballot and the severe gerrymandering of districts in favor of Mr. Musharraf’s supporters. Long before the race, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif had been forced into exile, weakening the ability of their parties to function.

As the race approached, Mr. Musharraf took over much of Mr. Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League. He also passed a requirement that all candidates have a university degree, a measure that knocked some of Ms. Bhutto’s and Mr. Sharif’s strongest candidates off the ballot.

Ikram Sehgal, a defense analyst and retired army pilot who runs a security company, said government and intelligence officials also engaged in “post-poll rigging,” pressing successful candidates from other parties to defect.

“They would say: ‘You have not paid your taxes, here are the bills. These are the corruption cases against you,’ ” he said.

This year, the country’s election commission, judiciary and local governments are all run by officials loyal to Mr. Musharraf. Analysts say the president has used the state of emergency to create an electoral playing field that favors his candidates, constraining media coverage, public rallies and the length of the campaign.

The dismissal and continued detention of Supreme Court and High Court judges “sent a very strong signal” that election results could not be appealed, according an election observer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Instead of the standard 60-day campaign, candidates will have only three weeks after emergency rule, which is expected to end this weekend. Restrictions will remain against rallies and processions, which are only permitted in proscribed places.

And Mr. Musharraf has muzzled the country’s news media, barring live coverage of election rallies and popular political talk shows. Under a new ordinance unilaterally enacted by Mr. Musharraf under emergency rule, television journalists face up to three years in jail for broadcasting “anything which defames or brings into ridicule the head of state.”

In a letter to stations on Monday, government officials accused them of airing live telephone calls from the public that contained “baseless propaganda against Pakistan and incite people to violence.” If the practice continued, they said, station owners and journalists could be jailed.

Fears also exist that government resources are being used in favor of election candidates. The nazim, or district mayor, who controls the local government officials running polling stations, can oversee rigging, Mr. Sehgal said. Opposition parties have demanded they be replaced by neutral officials during the election campaign.

Mr. Sehgal also said law enforcement agencies could shutter polling stations where opposition candidates were expected to do well on the pretext that there were disturbances. “The police find out where they could lose a polling station and they close it early,” he said. “And they put the votes of their party in the box.”

And after ballots are cast, there are concerns about how the vote will be tallied, according to the election observer. Political party observers may be barred from election centers where results from across the constituency will be totaled. “It’s a huge deficiency,” he said.

On Wednesday, Aitzaz Ahsan, a top lawyer who has been under house arrest during the state of emergency was imposed, announced that he was pulling out of the election, in deference to the lawyers who have sought a boycott of elections until the former Supreme Court is restored.

He and other lawyers predict the vote will be rigged. Mr. Sehgal estimates that Pervez Elahi, the former chief minister of Punjab Province and the leading candidate from Mr. Musharraf’s party, can secure 100 seats in Punjab by virtue of his control of government machinery there.

Without rigging, he would only get 45 to 50 seats, he said. Mr. Gilani said his polling has shown 20 percent support for Mr. Musharraf’s party after the emergency.